This function gives a capsule have a look at three horses who’re heating up on the Triple Crown path and three horses whose possibilities for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve will not be fairly as robust as they have been a couple of weeks in the past.
On this third version of this weblog for the 2024 run for the roses, the main target is on the important thing Derby prep races on Feb. 3 in addition to a couple of different promising 3-year-olds from latest weeks.
This weblog will change into extra constant within the coming weeks main into the Could 4 Kentucky Derby with a gradual slate of qualifying factors races on the horizon.
Notice: Essentially the most spectacular winner from Feb. 3, Nysos, is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby as a result of his coach, Bob Baffert, is banned by Churchill Downs within the wake of Media Spirit’s disqualification for a drugs violation within the 2021 Kentucky Derby. See extra under within the “Of Notice” part underneath the Three Cooling Down.
THREE HEATING UP
1. Mystik Dan
I attempted to make a case for every of the winners of the Kentucky Derby factors races for the highest spot, however regardless of a couple of lingering questions I saved coming again to runaway Southwest Stakes victor Mystik Dan. The primary motive is straightforward: he ran quick. Quick is essential – important, really – for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, and Mystik Dan’s successful Equibase Velocity Determine (110), Beyer Velocity Determine (101), and Brisnet velocity score (101) for the Southwest towered over Holy Bull Stakes winner Hades and Withers Stakes winner Uncle Heavy. He additionally beat the deepest group, on paper, by eight lengths and completed effectively with a last sixteenth of a mile in 5.93 seconds in keeping with Equibase. Positive, the breakout stakes win got here on a muddy observe at Oaklawn Park after an excellent rail-skimming journey, however Mystik Dan has one other quick race on his résumé, his maiden win on Nov. 12, 2023, and he’s within the succesful fingers of Kenny McPeek, who received the 2022 Belmont Stakes with Sarava and the 2020 Preakness Stakes with Swiss Skydiver. His subsequent begin will most probably be the Arkansas Derby on March 30 at Oaklawn and I anticipate the Goldencents colt to run effectively.
2. Hades
Whereas the velocity figures don’t paint an particularly rosy image, Hades regarded champion Fierceness within the eyeball getting into the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and put him away after setting the tempo within the 1 1/16-mile race. The Superior Slew gelding then had sufficient stamina in reserve to fend off a late rally from Home Product to prevail by two lengths in his stakes debut. A $130,000 buy as a 2-year-old on the 2023 OBS Spring sale by coach Joe Orseno on behalf of householders D. J. Secure and Robert Cotran, Hades improved to a few wins in as many begins. “I purchased him with some excessive expectations, and he lived as much as them,” Orseno stated after Hades aced the category check within the Holy Bull. Hades earned a 95 Equibase Velocity Determine, a 90 Beyer Velocity Determine, and a 93 Brisnet score, that are stable however unspectacular figures, and his last five-sixteenths of a mile in :31.82 likewise doesn’t encourage. That stated, he has solely three begins underneath his belt and regarded fairly inexperienced within the stretch Saturday at Gulfstream Park, so there may be room for each psychological and bodily enchancment within the coming weeks. He might make his subsequent begin in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2 or Florida Derby on March 30, and the way a lot Hades improves very probably will decide if he’s a bona-fide Kentucky Derby contender or not.
3. Uncle Heavy
It was a reasonably even between Hades and Uncle Heavy when evaluating these two for the second and third slots this week, however defeating Fierceness gave the previous the slight edge. One benefit Uncle Heavy might need is stamina as he’s now 2-for-2 in two-turn races and posted a career-high 95 Equibase Velocity Determine, 84 Beyer Velocity Determine, and 94 Brisnet score is his first strive at 1 1/8 miles within the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The Social Inclusion colt closed resolutely to nip front-running El Grande O by a nostril at 9.30-1 odds on a muddy (sealed) primary observe. Stated coach Butch Reid: “I’ve all the time felt all together with this horse, the farther the higher. He definitely proved that at present.” Alongside these traces, Uncle Heavy was fairly broad all through the race, so one might argue the win was higher than it appears on paper. My primary considerations with Uncle Heavy are the extent of competitors within the Withers – the New York Derby preps have a tendency to draw increased high quality competitors as winter turns to spring – and his last furlong in :13.04 and three-eighths of a mile in :38.85, which have been simply OK … though the “off” observe might have performed a job in that. Uncle Heavy is at the very least actually attention-grabbing as a Derby prospect and one to maintain tabs on. My hunch is I is perhaps underselling him a bit at this level.
Additionally-eligible: A few maiden winners from January dazzled on the observe: Converse Simple and Corridor of Fame. Converse Simple received his profession debut for coach Todd Pletcher and homeowners Siena Farm and WinStar Farm Jan. 27 at Gulfstream Park. The bay Structure colt pressed the tempo and powered to a 1 ¾-length win in a victory that earned a 92 Equibase Velocity Determine and an eye catching 100 Beyer Velocity Determine. He appears like a quick racehorse out of Grade 1-placed Enjoyable, by Harlan’s Vacation. … Likewise, Corridor of Fame turned heads with a ten ¼-length romp Feb. 20 at Honest Grounds in his second profession begin for Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen. The Gun Runner colt earned a 97 Equibase Velocity Determine and a 94 Beyer Velocity Determine for the win at 1 1/16 miles after operating second in a dash in his November debut at Churchill Downs.
THREE COOLING DOWN
1. Fierceness
Look, it’s truthful to say Fierceness regarded like he wanted a race when he got here up empty getting into the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes in his return from a three-month layoff. I agree, that was not a totally cranked Fierceness. However getting into the race, Fierceness regarded just like the quickest 3-year-old dust horse on the planet on paper and he towered over the opposite six starters on this subject because the 1-5 favourite. He’s now disillusioned as an odds-on favourite in two of his 4 profession races. The expertise is definitely there, however up to now he’s proven each flashes of brilliance and inconsistency. I anticipated the 6 ¼-length winner of the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance to depart the opposition reeling in his wake on the prime of the Gulfstream stretch monitoring a half-mile in a leisurely :50.53. As a substitute, he completed 3 ½ lengths behind pacesetter Hades, who chugged residence his last sixteenth of a mile in 6.79 seconds. The excellent news is Fierceness reportedly got here out of the race in good order and we all know there are higher days forward for the Metropolis of Mild colt, however his standing because the early Kentucky Derby favourite took successful within the Holy Bull.
I had my doubts about Otto the Conqueror after he ran his successful streak to a few with a three-quarter-length rating within the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes as a result of that first stakes win got here on a muddy observe, he completed slowly, and his velocity figures took a step again when stretching out in distance. It appeared that the muddy observe at Oaklawn Park for the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes ought to go well with the Road Sense colt given he had received on an identical floor in his earlier race, however the pacesetter light badly when headed and completed 18 ¼ lengths behind winner Mystik Dan. I nonetheless assume Otto the Conqueror is a very nice 3-year-old, however my guess is he is perhaps higher suited to sprinting. He’s value giving one other shot on the Derby path, for certain, particularly to see what he can do in a two-turn race on a quick observe. However the Southwest was a step within the unsuitable route.
3. Otello
I thought-about Carbone for the ultimate spot right here however his uninteresting effort within the Southwest Stakes was his first strive on an “off” observe, so I assumed he deserved a mulligan. As for Otello, I used to be fairly excessive on him getting into the Holy Bull Stakes regardless of uninspiring velocity figures as a result of I appreciated what I noticed visually in each his November debut win and half-length rating within the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 1 for coach Christophe Clement. The well-bred Curlin colt simply by no means actually confirmed a lot within the Holy Bull as he was by no means a menace from begin to end whereas operating sixth, overwhelmed by 6 ¾ lengths. With solely three begins, there may be clearly room for enchancment within the coming weeks for Otello however I hoped he would possibly rise to the extent of the competitors within the Holy Bull and it simply didn’t occur.
Of Notice: Horses educated by Bob Baffert ineligible to accrue Kentucky Derby qualifying factors or to compete within the first jewel of the Triple Crown whereas underneath his care as a part of a ban instituted by Churchill Downs within the wake of Medina Spirit’s disqualification for a drugs violation within the 2021 Kentucky Derby. To ensure that horses educated by Baffert to change into eligible for the Kentucky Derby, they wanted to be transferred to a coach eligible to compete within the race by Feb. 1. None of Baffert’s runners have been moved to different barns – thus the 3-year-olds in his care is not going to compete within the 2024 Kentucky Derby (or Longines Kentucky Oaks, for that matter, concerning the fillies). Final weekend’s runaway Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Nysos was probably the most spectacular winner, by an eighth pole, of a Kentucky Derby prep race final weekend, however he must goal the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes Offered by NYRA Bets if he’s going to take residence a trophy on this yr’s Triple Crown. Primarily based on the 105 Beyer Velocity Determine he earned for the Lewis, the best Beyer for 3-year-old in 2024, Nysos can be very powerful within the Preakness. … Grade 1 winner Locked, third within the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA, will miss a deliberate begin within the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs after Each day Racing Type reported the Todd Pletcher trainee missed a exercise with a fever.
