Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, the place we’ll have a look every week at a current winner on the Triple Crown path, often from the Street to the Kentucky Derby schedule that gives qualifying factors for the primary leg of the sequence. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve will likely be held Could 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.
This week, we’ll take a better take a look at Mystik Dan, winner of the $800,000 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 3 at Oaklawn Park. Mystik Dan earned 20 factors towards qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and with 21 complete factors moved into third place on the most recent Street to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Racing Résumé: Some contenders on the highway to the Kentucky Derby are fairly simple to peg right into a contender or pretender class. Mystik Dan just isn’t a kind of 3-year-olds, for me a minimum of.
Based mostly solely on his eight-length romp within the Southwest Stakes Saturday, which was genuinely a “wow” efficiency at 11.40-1 odds, he appears to be like like a rising star. Not solely did Mystik Dan dominate what seemed like by far essentially the most gifted, deepest area from amongst 4 Kentucky Derby prep races final weekend, he completed very quick with a last sixteenth of a mile in 5.93 seconds based on Equibase and a last five-sixteenths of a mile in about :30.11. The Goldencents colt was transferring exceptionally properly late within the 1 1/16-mile prep race.
He additionally confirmed a earlier flash of elite means with a maiden win by 7 ¾ lengths Nov. 12 sprinting at Churchill Downs, however he was inconsistent after that with back-to-back fifth-place finishes in an allowance race at Churchill and the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn.
Additionally, his breakout stakes win within the Southwest got here on an “off” (muddy) observe and he bought a dream journey hugging a rail that had been fairly sturdy for runners all day.
“I used to be really excited about [getting to the rail] the entire means within the put up parade there. I used to be simply making an attempt to determine what horse I may get behind and get to the fence,” successful jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. mentioned. “We have been capable of save floor on each turns. After we bought to the second flip, I referred to as on him and he picked it up. I used to be capable of type of simply look ahead to a spot. When a seam opened up barely on the within, he shot via there and did the remainder for us.”
Mystik Dan improved to 2 wins and one second from 5 begins for coach Kenny McPeek, and he figures to have his supporters and detractors between now and his subsequent begin. The Southwest was postponed for every week as a consequence of inclement climate, that means the Insurgent Stakes Feb. 24 at Oaklawn is just three weeks after the Southwest. McPeek mentioned due to the timing, he’s inclined to attend for the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 30 for Mystik Dan’s subsequent race.
Pace Figures: Mystik Dan earned a 110 Equibase Pace Determine for the Southwest Stakes and a 101 Beyer Pace Determine, each new profession bests. He improved 10 factors from the 100 Equibase Pace Determine he earned in his maiden win sprinting and boosted his Beyer 5 factors from a 96, additionally earned in his 7 ¾-length win Nov. 11 at Churchill. In contrast to lots of the Derby contenders profiled thus far, Mystik Dan has run a legitimately quick race. That alone makes him fairly attention-grabbing as a prospect.
Operating Fashion: One other issue that makes Mystik Dan attention-grabbing is that he settled way more comfortably early within the Southwest than he had in his earlier begins, monitoring from sixth within the early levels from about three to 5 lengths off the tempo. He had been extra distinguished early in his earlier races, together with his pace-pressing maiden win at 5 ½ furlongs that was mentioned beforehand. Pace is a beneficial software, and now we all know that not solely does Mystik Dan have it, he has matured to the purpose the place he can ration his pace in races.
Connections: Mystik Dan is owned and was bred by the partnership of Arkansans Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby III, and 4 G Racing out of the Colonel John mare Ma’am. Skilled by McPeek, Ma’am raced for Lance Gasaway, Greg Gasaway, David Gasaway, and Daniel Hamby and posted 4 wins, three seconds, and 5 thirds in 23 begins whereas incomes $167,923.
“The cool factor about [Mystik Dan] is that I purchased his mom for Lance and the group, and she or he had a superb profession after which we foaled him on the farm in Lexington,” mentioned McPeek, referring to his Magdalena Farm. “I beneficial the mating [to Goldencents]. He wanted some pace and, boy, he is quick. It is thrilling.”
Ken McPeek is approaching his milestone 2,000th profession win with 1,995 victories via Feb. 4. Two of these wins got here in Triple Crown races, successful the 2020 Preakness Stakes with the filly Swiss Skydiver and the 2002 Belmont Stakes with 70.25-1 longshot Sarava. McPeek, whose finest Kentucky Derby end was a second in 1995 with Tejano Run, has additionally skilled Grade 1 winners reminiscent of Take Cost Woman, Rattle N Roll, Harlan’s Vacation, Golden Ticket, Daddys Lil Darling, Noble’s Promise, Basic Causeway, Stressed Rider, and Defining Function.
Brian Hernandez Jr. has ridden Mystik Dan in 4 of his 5 races to date and is first-call jockey for McPeek. Hernandez took out his jockey’s license in 2003 and gained the 2004 Eclipse Award as excellent apprentice jockey. He has gained greater than 2,500 profession races, together with the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Basic using Fort Larned and Grade 1s aboard the aforementioned Rattle N Roll, Stressed Rider, and Defining Function for McPeek.
Pedigree Notes: Mystik Dan is from the sixth crop of two-time Breeders’ Cup Grime Mile winner Goldencents, who proved able to carrying his pace 1 1/8 miles within the 2013 Santa Anita Derby. He’s one in all Goldencents’ 31 stakes winners, together with a number of Grade 1-winning turf runner Going to Vegas and 2019 Louisiana Derby winner By My Requirements.
The aforementioned Ma’am, by Colonel John, is the dam (mom) of Mystik Dan, her first foal and lone starter thus far. Ma’am’s 4 wins got here at distances starting from a mile to 1 1/16 miles and she or he hails from a household that has produced Grade 1 winners Laragh, Siphonic, and Easy Like Strait, along with promising younger sire Summer time Entrance.
Derby Potential: In evaluating Mystik Dan, I can see affordable trigger for concern. His breakout stakes win got here on an off observe and he bought a dream journey, and previous to Southwest win he had completed fifth in back-to-back begins.
Nonetheless, these two defeats seem like they’ve legitimate excuses. The primary, an allowance-optional claiming race on Nov. 25, got here simply 13 days after his dominant maiden win, a fast turnaround particularly after an enormous effort. My guess is that it was an excessive amount of too rapidly. Within the Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1, Mystik Dan was second and inside a head of the lead in deep stretch earlier than fading late in a race that he in all probability wanted by way of constructing stamina.
I want to see Mystik Dan repeat his Southwest effort in a two-turn race going through stakes competitors on a quick (dry) essential observe, but it surely’s tough to disregard some spectacular pace figures and the way strongly he completed Feb. 3 at Oaklawn. He additionally owns a win at Churchill Downs and has proven he’s versatile by way of working model and dealing with each quick and muddy surfaces. I believe the positives outweigh the questions at this level for Mystik Dan.
