Classes from Celtics-Raptors: attacking statistics

“We’re not enjoying nice, however we’re nonetheless in it.”

After Friday’s win over the Toronto Raptors, head coach Joe Mazzulla talked about how this chorus bought the Celtics via timeouts in a sport the place they seemed like a Costco-brand model of themselves. He pressured how he needed his guys to exist in that area of not feeling their finest, after which to determine methods to assault that.

A lot has been made—and I’ve made a lot of—the ludicrous energy of this Celtics group after they play their finest. However Friday noticed the Celtics win regardless of a number of statistical shortcomings, together with a pair which were recognized to torpedo their possibilities of victory.

Yearly, the Celtics appear to have a make-or-break stat that may predict wins with alarming consistency. Final 12 months, if the Celtics shot 40 % or extra from past the arc, they received just about each time. The earlier 12 months, the identical was true about retaining turnovers beneath seven.

The jury remains to be out on what this 12 months’s make-or-break stat might be, however Friday evening noticed the Celtics confront these two skeletons of their statistical closet and are available out on prime. They missed 30 whole three-balls, going beneath 35 %, and turned the ball over 13 occasions. Furthermore, the Celtics didn’t have a single participant dominate scoring, with traditional suspect Jayson Tatum going 8-22 from the sector and 1-11 from past the arc.

Photograph by Cole Burston/Getty Photos

That appears like an obituary I might have written final 12 months. It has all the best hits of a Celtics loss: subpar taking pictures, turnovers, and an ice-cold Tatum. However they managed to beat these hurdles by spreading out their scoring, with seven guys reaching double figures and Jaylen Brown the lone man reaching 20.

Mazzulla chalked up the success to late sport execution, however I might go even additional. A very powerful factor you’ll be able to execute is making a shot, and the Celtics hit three enormous ones down the stretch.

Try this three-ball by Al Horford—notable elite shooter—who was left insultingly large open by the Raptors collapsing three defenders to the paint on Tatum’s dribble drive. This appeared to be their scheme all evening, and Al took benefit. It’s also possible to hear Drake calling Payton Pritchard a crypto scammer for those who flip the sound up.

The Raptors insistence on denying the paint might be a results of the Celtics making greater than 75 % of their two-point pictures the final two occasions they performed the Raptors. Sure, that stat is simply as ridiculous because it sounds, and I think about new coach Darko Rajakovic wasn’t probably the most considering that occuring once more.

Subsequent up, we now have the ever-glorious Derrick White, who was merely forgotten about as 4 Raptors swarmed the paint to cease Tatum. I think about that is the results of utterly blown defensive rotations, however I think about the Raptors blew them as a result of they have been instructed to permit completely nothing within the paint. Why else would Chris Boucher be doing… no matter it’s he’s doing right here?

The Philadelphia 76ers tried this similar defensive idea on Wednesday, making an attempt to remove ending angles by both parking Joel Embiid within the paint or rotating assist defenders off of the corners. Basically, each groups have been daring the Celtics to win the sport from past the arc.

Leaving a large open shooter on the wing or within the nook is a defensive technique I wish to name the “we’re overmatched and don’t have any different concepts on methods to cease you” plan. It was most famously employed by the Milwaukee Bucks in Recreation 7 of the 2022 Jap Convention Semifinals, when Grant Williams cashed seven threes as a result of no one was even pretending to protect him.

It sounds fairly horrible while you say it out loud, however it’s not the worst concept on the planet if it really works out. The Raptors left a number of Celtics extraordinarily large open on the primary three possessions of the sport, however the Celtics began out 1-6 from deep.

Had they gone 5-6, the Celtics would have opened up an enormous lead in a not-huge period of time. However since they missed, the Raptors created 5 optimistic possessions that they wouldn’t have had in any other case. It’s a bit nuts and absurdly dangerous, however it saved the Raptors within the sport for an extended stretch. However then White put the kibosh on that.

This protection is the magnum opus of leaving a man large open. Jrue Vacation was already double-teamed, however coming into the paint will need to have set off a tripwire as a result of Pascal Siakam instantly ignored White in favor of bringing a 3rd defender. That’s actually one of many worst methods of all time.

I’m all the time cognizant of whether or not pictures are good or dangerous in a vacuum, as a result of I feel plenty of shot-quality evaluation relies on whether or not or not they go in. All three of these pictures have been glorious appears to be like, and the Raptors have been tactically okay with that.

However there’s a distinction between a dangerous technique and truly executing it nicely. Not less than for Horford’s shot, Boucher was making an comprehensible resolution to carry assist. However the paint was lined on the opposite two. Boucher’s second rotation might be an try to seal off a passing lane, however Tatum made a wonderful go. The third one… simply made no sense.

These have been massive pictures, and the Celtics truly made them. I’ve an irrational hatred of the phrase “make or miss league,” however that’s what the Raptors pressured the Celtics to do Friday evening. Regardless of an preliminary stoop, they saved firing, and hit pictures after they counted.

And I truly believed they have been going to go in, which is a improvement I might be monitoring going ahead.