The Street to the Kentucky Derby heats up this Saturday within the “Huge Straightforward” with the $400,000, Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, a key prep race for the run for the roses and a neighborhood steppingstone to the $1 million Louisiana Derby at Honest Grounds on March 23.
The 1 1/8-mile Risen Star kicks off the Championship Collection slate of factors races for the Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve which suggests there are 105 Derby qualification factors up for grabs and distributed on a 50-25-15-10-5 foundation to the highest 5 finishers. The winners of those Championship Collection qualifying races mainly are assured a spot within the Kentucky Derby beginning gate Might 4 at Churchill Downs.
Not surprisingly, the 2024 Risen Star has drawn a deep 12-horse discipline with native runners squaring off towards out-of-state challengers. It’s shaping up as a difficult race to handicap however a enjoyable stakes to wager, so why not use historical past to assist kind the contenders? After reviewing the previous 15 years of Risen Star outcomes, we’ve recognized seven ideas and tendencies to information your handicapping:
Tempo benefit
It’s not inconceivable for stretch runners to win the Risen Star; horses like Ive Struck a Nerve (2013), Worldwide Star (2015), and Angel of Empire (2023) have rallied from the again half of the pack to prevail. However as is typical in U.S. dust racing, the Risen Star tends to favor horses with early pace. Six of the final seven winners raced in first, second, or third after the opening half-mile, whereas 11 of the final 16 winners raced within the prime 4 after half a mile.
|
Yr |
Winner |
Place after first 1/2-mile |
1/2-mile, 3/4-mile occasions (monitor situation) |
|
2023 |
Angel of Empire |
9th by 5.75 lengths (14 starters) |
:47.50, 1:12.21 (quick) |
|
2022 |
Epicenter |
1st by 1 size (10 starters) |
:47.97, 1:12.25 (quick) |
|
2021 |
Mandaloun |
3rd by 2 lengths (11 starters) |
:48.45, 1:12.74 (quick) |
|
2020 (Div #2) |
Modernist |
2nd by 0.5 lengths (11 starters) |
:48.57, 1:12.62 (quick) |
|
2020 (Div #1) |
Mr. Monomoy |
1st by 0.5 lengths (11 starters) |
:48.57, 1:12.85 (quick) |
|
2019 |
Warfare of Will |
2nd by 2.5 lengths (14 starters) |
:47.36, 1:12.20 (quick) |
|
2018 |
Bravazo |
2nd by a head (9 starters) |
:47.96, 1:12.85 (quick) |
|
2017 |
Girvin |
5th by 9.5 lengths (11 starters) |
:47.02, 1:11.98 (quick) |
|
2016 |
Gun Runner |
4th by 4.5 lengths (11 starters) |
:46.38, 1:11.33 (quick) |
|
2015 |
Worldwide Star |
6th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters) |
:47.08, 1:12.16 (quick) |
|
2014 |
Intense Vacation |
7th by 6 lengths (14 starters) |
:48.14, 1:13.00 (quick) |
|
2013 |
Ive Struck a Nerve |
11th by 7 lengths (12 starters) |
:48.34, 1:12.74 (quick) |
|
2012 |
El Padrino |
3rd by 3 lengths (11 starters) |
:48.72, 1:13.15 (quick) |
|
2011 |
Mucho Macho Man |
2nd by 1.5 lengths (10 starters) |
:49.24, 1:13.65 (quick) |
|
2010 |
Discreetly Mine |
1st by 1 size (12 starters) |
:48.75, 1:13.44 (quick) |
|
2009 |
Friesan Fireplace |
4th by 1.5 lengths (13 starters) |
:47.61, 1:13.64 (quick) |
An eye fixed on an upset
Favorites haven’t had the most effective of luck within the Risen Star. Solely three of the final 16 Risen Star favorites (El Padrino, Warfare of Will, and Mandaloun) have visited the winner’s circle, a 19% win charge that ranks under the same old anticipated consequence for favorites.
In distinction, longshots have routinely run effectively within the Risen Star. Ive Struck a Nerve shocked handicappers along with his 135.20-1 upset in 2013. Bravazo (21-1) and Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1) ran one-two in 2018. Modernist (12.80-1) and Angel of Empire (13.70-1) nabbed double-digit surprises in 2020 and 2023. Roiland (69.30-1) completed third in 2019, Forevamo (40.60-1) gained the runner-up spot in 2016, Albano (13.60-1) was overwhelmed a nostril in 2014, Solar Thunder (16.60-1) took second in 2023, Northern Large (53.80-1) cracked the trifecta in 2010… you get the image. Don’t be afraid to play longshots within the Risen Star.
Dwelling-course benefit
Horses exiting races at Honest Grounds have performed effectively defending their residence turf within the Risen Star, claiming eight of the final 16 editions. Seven of the regionally based mostly winners — Friesan Fireplace, Ive Struck a Nerve, Worldwide Star, Warfare of Will, Mr. Monomoy, Mandaloun, and Epicenter — exited the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Honest Grounds.
Financial institution on class
The Risen Star hasn’t been type to untested horses stepping up at school. Fifteen of the final 16 Risen Star winners had beforehand competed in a stakes race, and 13 of them had beforehand run in a graded stakes. The lone exception to the stakes rule was Modernist, a maiden winner who received the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.
Good type signal
Should you’re going to problem for victory within the Risen Star, it helps when you’re coming into with a powerful latest race underneath your belt. Fifteen of the final 16 Risen Star winners prepped with a race in January or February, and all 15 completed within the prime 4 of their prep run. The one horse to defy this development was future Horse of the Yr Gun Runner, who received the Risen Star in his season debut.
Geroux has the new hand
Florent Geroux has been some of the profitable jockeys at Honest Grounds in recent times, and his spectacular document within the Risen Star displays this success. Since 2016, Geroux has received the Risen Star 3 times aboard Gun Runner, Mr. Monomoy, and Mandaloun, suggesting bettors ought to sit up and take discover at any time when Geroux has a mount.
Guess coach Brad Cox
Two-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox has saddled three of the final 5 Risen Star winners: Mr. Monomoy (2020, division one), Mandaloun (2021), and Angel of Empire (2023). Cox trainees are harmful within the Risen Star and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Conclusions
Taking all of those tendencies collectively, the right candidate for Risen Star victory can be a regionally based mostly, non-favored pace horse with stakes expertise, ideally exiting the Lecomte Stakes (or at the very least a race in January or February) and with Florent Geroux named to experience for coach Brad Cox. Not one of the dozen horses entered within the 2024 Risen Star completely matches this profile, however #11 Observe Phantom comes shut.
Observe Phantom has received three straight races for Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen, a three-time winner of the Risen Star. After using dueling ways to win a Churchill Downs maiden particular weight race and the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 at Honest Grounds, Observe Phantom led all the way in which to dominate the Lecomte by 2 3/4 lengths on Jan. 20.
It’s potential Observe Phantom will begin because the Risen Star favourite, however there’s arguably a greater probability bettors will get caught up supporting Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes one-two finishers #3 Honor Marie and #6 Actual Males Violin, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes runner-up #4 Sierra Leone, and even #7 Corridor of Fame, a flashy maiden winner at Honest Grounds on the Lecomte undercard.
However Honor Marie, Actual Males Violin, and Sierra Leone haven’t raced since final 12 months, and Corridor of Fame has but to deal with a stakes race. These are historic disadvantages, so Observe Phantom comes out because the horse to beat within the Risen Star. He may not have Florent Geroux aboard, however he does have Eclipse Award-winning jockey Joel Rosario in his nook, and it’s value noting Rosario teamed up with Asmussen to win the 2022 Risen Star aboard Epicenter.
Good luck together with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!
