José Ramírez Was Completely Completely different and Precisely the Similar in 2023

José Ramírez is the definition of a set-it-and-forget-it participant, and I imply that not less than a little bit bit actually. Neither we nor our mates over at Baseball Prospectus printed a single article that centered on him throughout a 2023 season when, for the fourth time in a row, he completed within the prime 10 within the AL MVP voting. He turned out to have a really fascinating season, and never simply because he was, as at all times, wonderful.

In June of 2022, Ramírez injured the ulnar collateral ligament in his proper thumb. To the shock of the Cleveland teaching workers, he determined to play by means of vital ache and postpone surgical procedure till the offseason. Regardless of seeing his energy drop off dramatically, he ended the season with a 141 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR. He lastly had the surgical procedure in November and got here into the 2023 season wholesome, however he acquired off to a sluggish begin and completed with a 123 wRC+. It was his worst exhibiting since 2019, when a damaged hamate bone ended his season prematurely. (As an apart, in the event you’re determined for for reassurance that Mike Trout will bounce again from his hamate damage, look no additional than Ramírez, who instantly returned to superstardom in 2020.)

The graph under spans three years so you may see Ramírez in his wholesome 2021 season, then how his energy trailed off after the damage in ‘22, then the form of his 2023 season.

At first blush, that is a straightforward story to inform. Hand surgical procedure tends to rob hitters of power, and it took some time for all these tiny muscle tissues in Ramírez’s hand to get again to regular. That huge spike on the suitable facet of the graph began rising on June 7, when he kicked off a nine-game hitting streak by going 2-for-4 with an RBI double in a win over the Crimson Sox. Listed below are his 2023 stats, utilizing that date as a dividing line:

Ramírez began hitting the ball a lot tougher. He hit thrice as many dwelling runs in nicely below half as many plate appearances. Actually, he ended the season with a 90-mph common exit velocity, the best of his profession. These tiny little muscle tissues actually matter. However whereas it’s a real story, it’s not the entire story. Listed below are some extra stats utilizing that very same dividing line:

For the primary 60 video games of the season, Ramírez wasn’t hitting the ball as onerous however was additionally considerably unfortunate (although a few of it was as a result of his batted ball combine, which we’ll get to later). On the similar time, he was placing the ball in play extra typically. His stroll price was a bit decrease, and his strikeout price was greater than a bit decrease. To place these numbers in context, since 2016, Ramírez has run a ten.5% stroll price and a 12% strikeout price. These first 60 video games have been the outlier.

What was he doing otherwise? It’s not that he was chasing extra or making rather a lot much less contact. It’s that he was extra aggressive on pitches within the zone.

As soon as once more, the primary row is the outlier, and the second row is true consistent with Ramírez’s profession numbers. He ended the season with a swing price of 70.3% on pitches within the zone. That’s the best price of his profession, all due to these first 60 video games.

Swinging at extra pitches within the zone is often a very good factor, however look what occurs if we use Baseball Savant’s assault zones and break the strikes down into pitches over the center of the plate and pitches within the shadow zone. The desk under is simply his swing price:

Now we’re getting someplace. Once more, the desk above solely pertains to pitches within the strike zone; it doesn’t embody pitches that have been within the shadow zone however exterior the zone. At the start of the season, regardless of not chasing extra, Ramírez didn’t actually distinguish between pitches over the center of the plate and pitches on the perimeters of the strike zone. After June 7, his swing price on strikes within the shadow zone dropped again all the way down to and even under his profession price of 57.6%.

For instance the significance of that change, I’m going to indicate you an unholy amalgam of two graphs from Pitcher Checklist. I took Ramírez’s strike zone judgment graph, and on prime of it, I crudely pasted his determination worth graph. The white line reveals how typically Ramírez made the suitable name in the event you take a look at issues in black and white: swing at pitches prone to be referred to as strikes, and lay off pitches prone to be referred to as balls. The purple line reveals extra nuance, modeling the run worth of a swing or tackle any given pitch, then crediting or debiting the hitter based mostly on every determination.

See the massive hole between the white and purple traces at the start of the chart? Earlier than his manufacturing took off, Ramírez was swinging at strikes and shedding balls, however he wasn’t essentially swinging at hittable pitches, particularly fastballs.

I discussed earlier that when Ramírez underperformed his wOBA throughout that early stretch, he may need been experiencing greater than unhealthy luck. That’s as a result of his batted ball distribution modified drastically:

Ramírez hit tons of fly balls, and he additionally hit extra balls to heart subject, the place it takes extra energy to do harm. That’s not a recipe for fulfillment in the event you’re doing so at a time if you’re hitting the ball extra weakly. He additionally elevated his popup price dramatically. Putting out much less doesn’t assist in any respect in the event you’re simply changing these strikeouts with a distinct sort of computerized out.

That stated, there actually was some unhealthy luck happening right here. This desk is his efficiency solely on strikes within the shadow zone:

Ramírez underperformed his xwOBA by practically 100 factors. It’s onerous to chalk all of that as much as batted ball distribution. On pitches over the center of the plate, he was nonetheless hitting the ball a lot softer, however his precise and anticipated efficiency was roughly the identical:

There’s much more nuance at play than we have now time to dig into. For instance, there’s the truth that Ramírez is a switch-hitter. Listed below are two extra swing determination charts, with Ramírez as a lefty on the left and as a righty on the suitable:

All through the season, these two traces appear to run counter to one another, with Ramírez making good choices from one facet and unhealthy choices from the opposite facet. I don’t know the place to start untangling that one.

I’m afraid that’s the place I’ll have to go away you. There’s a chicken-and-egg dialog available right here. It’s attainable that Ramírez adjusted his plate self-discipline as a result of hits weren’t falling in, due to doubts about his hand, as a result of he wasn’t hitting the ball as onerous, or due to another issue we will’t guess at. It’s additionally attainable that that is simply the sort of factor that occurs, and the damage is a handy place to assign the blame. There’s no actual solution to know, and as quickly as Ramírez hit that sizzling stretch in early June, he went again to his customary, extra considered method.

Ultimately, until you’re digging into the underlying metrics, you’ll see solely one other classic José Ramírez season. By DRC+, which appears to be like at underlying metrics and never simply outcomes, he was at 133, the third-best season of his complete profession. Because it stands, there’s no purpose that we shouldn’t count on him to place up one other ho-hum, five-win season in 2024. Nonetheless, we should always most likely pay a little bit extra consideration to it, simply in case.