There are 4 weeks remaining within the NFL common season. I do know what lots of you might be considering: “Rattling, I’ve to purchase Christmas presents already. Possibly I shouldn’t have spent that weekend in Vegas on the finish of the summer time.” Bank cards are about to be burning the following couple of weeks, however this time of the yr can be the ultimate 400 meters of the NFL regular-season schedule.
So long as groups have been close to, or at, the highest of the pack the primary 1200, apparent flaws could possibly be ignored. On this last lap, although, all errors and deficiencies are magnified as a result of solely a lot race stays. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs started this season with a easy stride. These strides have appeared more and more weak because the mile-race of the 2023 season has progressed.
The Chiefs truly stumbled out of the blocks with a season-opening loss to the Lions at dwelling.
Patrick Mahomes & Co. gathered themselves instantly and received their subsequent six video games. The Eagles received 9 of their first 10 video games, and the Lions have been successful at a gradual tempo all season.
For all three groups, current weeks have put an interrogation-room mild on their weaknesses. No NFL groups are excellent. The bounds of humanity and the NFL arduous wage cap don’t enable for that. It isn’t troublesome to determine every crew’s weak spot. How usually these shortcomings — in addition to the entire variety of them — are exploited is what differentiates the great, the common and the stank groups.
The Lions’ Thanksgiving sport kicked off 71.5 hours after a traditional Dan Campbell postgame speech. They got here again from a 12-point deficit in simply over 4 minutes to defeat the Chicago Bears at dwelling. No potential champion ought to be in that precarious of a scenario in opposition to a crew which may clear home after spending two years restocking it.
Each the Eagles and Chiefs are watching two-game shedding streaks. The Chiefs didn’t lose consecutive video games at any level throughout their 2022 Tremendous Bowl championship season. The Eagles misplaced two in a row, final yr, in Weeks 16 and 17 with Jalen Hurts sidelined. After 14 weeks, the 2 individuals in Tremendous Bowl LVII are on the ropes.
The previous championship mettle argument can be utilized for the Chiefs and Eagles, though considerably much less so for final season’s runner-up. That argument can’t be utilized to the Lions’ roster, as at the moment constructed, or the group as an entire. They’ve received one playoff sport since their final NFL Championship — in 1957. Three favorites are hitting the skids with solely a handful of video games remaining within the common season. All of them completely register on the panic meter.
Protection is an issue, however the Lions’ offense has additionally seen higher days
I didn’t invent the panic meter, so I’m not about to offer precise quantifications on its readings. I desire to think about these groups as a automobile’s temperature gauge. So long as it hovers center-right — get your head out of politics — a crew has no issues. Issues come up as soon as the gauge pushes noticeably to the left. If a automobile runs that scorching with no efforts to chill it, important harm can happen.
The Lions are like an previous automobile with a gauge that recurrently stays only a bit to the left. For an individual who can’t afford one thing higher, it could transport a driver for under so lengthy. Campbell’s bunch is a superb story. Groups like this are what give sports activities the slightest vein of decency.
A troublesome bunch is making an attempt with all its may to show a shedding franchise round. Their protection has struggled mightily, even in victories, however this Jared Goff-led offense additionally deserves scrutiny. He misplaced fumbles on consecutive drives throughout their Thanksgiving matchup in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers. Jonathan Owens — shoutout to Simone Biles, an American hero who nonetheless needs to cheer on her husband within the northern Wisconsin components — returned it for a landing and put his crew up, 20-6, within the first quarter.
Whereas the Packers turned the ball over on downs after the second fumble, they stored the Lions at bay all day. The rating didn’t get inside one possession till Detroit lower the result in 5 factors following a landing and profitable 2-point conversion try with 41 seconds remaining within the sport.
Throughout the Lions’ first matchup in opposition to the Bears in November, three passes obtained intercepted and so they fumbled on particular groups. The turnovers have been all doubled up — two interceptions within the first quarter and a back-to-back interception and fumble within the third quarter.
In opposition to the Bears, Week 14 at Soldier Subject, the Lions turned the ball over 3 times. That each one occurred earlier than the reward of that offsides flag that resulted in a game-winning landing for Chicago. The Lions’ protection is flawed and never as robust as their early-season performances. Nonetheless, their turnover downside couldn’t be fastened by Robert Porcher or Dick “Night time Prepare” Lane.
These one-score-win Eagles may need run out of steam
In mid-November, Campbell instructed his crew to by no means really feel unhealthy following an NFL win. I agree with him within the sense that each win in that league is treasured, though a few of them do deserve deep introspection. Groups just like the 2023 Eagles, that win numerous one-score video games, ought to study why they frequently wrestle to tug away from groups.
Of the Eagles’ 10 wins — the primary crew within the NFL to succeed in that whole this season — solely two have been by a couple of rating. Their final 4 wins required fourth-quarter comebacks. Coming again to win after trailing at halftime in four-consecutive video games tied a league file. The opposite three groups to perform that feat, the 1971 Cleveland Browns, 2006 Tennessee Titans and the 2011 Arizona Cardinals. Solely that Browns crew made the playoffs, and so they misplaced their first sport to the Baltimore Colts.
Just like the Lions, the Eagles’ protection has struggled. They aren’t anyplace close to the Lions within the unweighted protection DVOA rankings. Detroit was tenth whereas Philly was twenty first going into Week 14. For all the Eagles’ expertise on the line of defense, their secondary struggles. Their protection went from the primary quarter in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers to the third quarter in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys with out forcing a punt.
In opposition to the 49ers in Week 13, the Eagles weren’t in a position to maintain tempo in a 42-19 blowout loss at dwelling. The Cowboys have been aided by turnovers of their 33-13, Week 14, Sunday Night time Soccer dwelling victory. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith every misplaced fumbles throughout that sport.
The Eagles fumbled 3 times in opposition to the Cowboys at dwelling in November and have been fortunate to get better all of them. With out Travis Kelce’s second-half fumble in Week 13, they won’t have escaped that sport in opposition to the Chiefs with a victory.
Few rosters within the NFL are as robust because the one carrying the Philadelphia inexperienced, however it’s not as dominant as final yr. The Eagles are able to a return journey to the Tremendous Bowl and may even be capable of clinch home-field benefit. They simply had higher not rely on a possible NFC Championship Sport opponent to don’t have any choices at quarterback after halftime for a second consecutive season.
Ignore officiating for a second, the Chiefs have issues
On this piece, I cannot get into officiating throughout the Chiefs’ final two video games. No matter exterior forces which have performed a job in KC shedding consecutively for the primary time in two seasons, the crew is 8-5 by way of 14 weeks.
The Chiefs haven’t misplaced 5 video games in a season since Alex Smith’s final yr as a starter in 2017, after they went 10-6. In 2016, when Mahomes was nonetheless at Texas Tech, they completed with a 12-4 file. They’ve received the AFC West the final seven seasons. Mahomes has by no means performed in a street playoff sport.
Coming off of a championship season, the Chiefs needed to shuffle some cash which resulted in them shedding Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie on the offensive line, in addition to large receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and defensive again Juan Thornhill.
The protection and the offensive line have largely performed their half to maintain the Chiefs a contender. It’s the cross catchers which might be letting video games slip by way of their fingers. Kelce has obtained criticism for his spotty efficiency in 2023. In 2022 he caught 110 passes. This season, the 34-year-old Kelce has 74 catches with 4 video games remaining whereas averaging greater than a full yard much less per reception.
Smith-Schuster has not been in a position to come near salvaging the 2023 New England Patriots, however his 78 receptions for 933 yards from 2022 are missed. Behind him was Marques Valdez-Scantling with 687 yards receiving. Valdez-Scantling at the moment has lower than 300 whole yards receiving on the season and the Chiefs lead the NFL in drops. This whereas no crew has scored 30 factors in opposition to KC this season.
Going into Week 14 the Chiefs had the No. 4 offense and No. 9 protection per DVOA. That being stated, after two enormous and uninspiring losses helped spiral KC to its doubtlessly its worst file in seven seasons, even Mahomes can’t play previous the cheap doubt going through the 2023 Chiefs.
