The Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes Saturday at Truthful Grounds brings collectively a deep 12-horse subject, consisting of seven 3-year-olds which have gained or positioned in stakes races thus far of their brief careers.
Main the sphere by way of accomplishments is Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes winner Honor Marie, one in every of 4 horses that haven’t run for greater than two months. Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes runner-up Actual Males Violin is one other, as is Sierra Leone, who completed second by a nostril within the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in early December when final seen. Moonlight completed fourth within the Remsen and is one other getting back from a few months away from the races. Of the more moderen runners, Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes winner Observe Phantom often is the one the remainder of the sphere is chasing from the beginning, as he led from begin to end in that race. Catching Freedom gained the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Yr’s Day and suits with these, as do current visually spectacular maiden winners Corridor of Fame and Resilience. Cardinale was crushed a neck in his second profession begin and first two-turn race final month and is one other bettering sort. Bee Dancer gained his solely begin, final month, and is stretching out from six furlongs to this 1 1/8-mile distance with the skin put up in an enormous subject. Tizzy Indy has gained as soon as in seven tries and was most just lately fifth within the Lecomte. Equally, Superior Ruta has a one for six profession document and was just lately third in a six-furlong allowance race, so he’s stretching out in distance in addition to transferring up at school.
High win contenders:
Resilience final ran on Jan. 1 so he ticks the field about recency, as in contrast with Sierra Leone (Dec. 2), Honor Marie (Nov. 25), and Actual Males Violin (Nov. 25). Though 2016 Risen Star Stakes winner Gun Runner — who has two sons represented on this race in Sierra Leone and Corridor of Fame — gained this race after a fourth-place end within the Kentucky Jockey Membership the earlier fall, all the different winners within the final 10 years raced not more than seven weeks earlier. Resilience is skilled by Invoice Mott, who gained this race in 2020 with Modernist, who like Resilience had earned his first win simply previous to the race. A Corridor of Fame coach, Mott has additionally had success in stakes races with 3-year-olds off their maiden wins in current historical past as a Race Lens question exhibits he has gained 4 stakes races in 19 begins over the past 5 years with horses becoming the identical sample as Resilience, with three different horses having completed second. As to the horse himself, Resilience earned a career-best 91 Equibase Pace Determine when successful round two activates Jan. 1. To place that into perspective, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Catching Freedom earned a 97 determine on the identical day whereas making his third profession begin in a two-turn race. Contemplating Resilience is making his third profession begin in a two-turn race within the Risen Star, we are able to assume an enormous bounce ahead as properly and that’s the reason I feel the colt can put up the upset on this race.
Catching Freedom started his profession in a one-mile race (round one flip) in October and gained simply to earn an 85 Equibase Pace Determine, bettering to an 88 determine though fourth when despatched round two turns for the primary time the next month. Then in his subsequent begin, the Smarty Jones Stakes, Catching Freedom improved significantly to a career-best 97 velocity determine. Evaluating that effort and determine with the opposite prime contenders within the race, Honor Marie earned a 98 determine successful the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes final November, Sierra Leone earned a 99 determine when arising a nostril shy of successful the Remsen Stakes in December, and Observe Phantom earned a 100 determine successful the Gun Runner Stakes in December earlier than a 93 determine for successful the Lecomte. Catching Freedom (in addition to Resilience) has a operating fashion that matches the possible early tempo state of affairs of this race as properly. It is because Observe Phantom has been in entrance after three-quarters of a mile in his final 4 races (together with each stakes wins) and attracts the 11 put up, requiring him to make use of quite a lot of early velocity to get to the rail earlier than the primary flip. With Superior Ruta and Bee Dancer each stretching out to 2 turns from a lot shorter races, they may very seemingly need the entrance as properly, as may Cardinale, who practically led from begin to end in his win final month. All these horses vying for the lead ought to profit Catching Freedom properly, identical to within the Smarty Jones, during which he rallied from eighth of 9 early to win. As such, Catching Freedom is a powerful contender to earn his second stakes win in a row.
Corridor of Fame is skilled by Steve Asmussen, who additionally saddles Observe Phantom and who saddled 2022 Risen Star winner Epicenter and has gained this race thrice. Corridor of Fame might lack the expertise of lots of the different entrants on this race, having solely run twice, however he suits on many counts. First, he’s a son of Gun Runner, who gained the race in 2016 and who was additionally skilled by Asmussen. Second, Corridor of Fame earned a 98 Equibase Pace Determine successful by 10 ¼ lengths at Truthful Grounds in a two-turn race on Jan. 20. That effort places the colt squarely within the image right here if repeated or improved upon, so he rounds out the three prime contenders to win this 12 months’s Risen Star.
There are a quartet of horses that some bettors might favor, consisting of Honor Marie, Actual Males Violin, Sierra Leone, and Observe Phantom. Though all seem able to operating competitively by repeating their finest efforts, I may also make the case that since few horses in current historical past have gained this race after having been off for greater than six weeks, and as witnessed just lately within the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes with Fierceness, they will not be able to operating properly sufficient to win. Particularly, Sierra Leone earned a 99 determine when arising a nostril brief within the Remsen, Honor Marie earned a 98 determine successful the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes, whereas Actual Males Violin earned a 95 determine when second in that race and Observe Phantom earned a 100 determine successful the Gun Runner Stakes in December earlier than a successful the Lecomte Stakes with a 93 determine.
The remainder of the sphere (with finest consultant Equibase Pace Determine): Superior Ruta (84), Bee Dancer (86), Cardinale (85), Moonlight (89) and Tizzy Indy (72).
Win Contenders, in desire order:
